Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
