A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
